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陈理:巴菲特投资思想最新研究

陈理:巴菲特投资思想最新研究 (2018-04-10 10:37:24)

陈理:巴菲特投资思想最新研究 Warren Buffett’s evolution in the latest 10 years



原创 2018-04-09 陈理 实力视界

前言:本篇文章是我们管理人陈理先生对巴菲特投资思想的最新研究,2月初在三亚亚特兰蒂斯酒店举办的全面解读巴菲特10周年暨海南投资调研交流会上发表,我们将本篇文章翻译成英语,将带到奥马哈2018年巴菲特股东大会时和价值投资者交流探讨。







巴菲特每年都在致股东信里面把自己的一些思考,包括最新的一些体会,对全世界的投资者做分享。



Every year, Warren Buffett shares hisreflections including some new experience with investors across the world.



总体来说呢,2008年以来,巴菲特自己也认为在投资理论方面没有新的、重大的突破,因为他原来的投资理论已经实践证明非常成功了,既然已经成功了,也就没有必要做很大的突破和调整。但是他在两个方面有了比较大的进化,还在持续的进化,第一个是商业洞察力,第二个是他的识人用人的能力,这两个方面还在不断的发展。这是大的方面总体概括巴菲特最近十年的一个情况。



In general, after 2008, Warren Buffettadmitted that he hasn’t made new breakthroughs in his investing philosophywhich proved successful, so he thinks it’s not necessarily to make hugeadjustments with his philosophy. However, he has evolved in two aspects and heis continuing his personal evolution. One aspect of his evolution is hisinsights into business, another is his ability to identify and appoint talents.These two achievements generalize his major evolution during the past tenyears.



但是巴菲特在道的方面即整个投资框架没有大的变化的情况下,他在术的方面,一些理论性、实践上的问题,有了更精确的描述,我认为也是对投资界的重大贡献。



Although Buffett didn’t changed his tao ofinvesting, he has made a series of contributions at the level of tactics. Hismore precise descriptions for some theoretical and practical issues should beregarded as his significant contributions to the industry of finance as awhole.



(一)投资新定义。



(1)A new definition of investment



“投资行为被形容这样一个过程:在今天投出资金,预期未来能收回更多的钱。在伯克希尔,我们对此要求更高,我们将投资定义为将今天的购买力转移给他人而预期在未来收到合理的购买力(扣除对名义收益的税收)。更简洁的说法是,投资是放弃今天的消费,为了在以后的日子里能够有能力更多的消费。



Investing is often described as the process of laying outmoney now in the expectation of receiving more money in the future. AtBerkshire we take a more demanding approach, defining investing as the transferto others of purchasing power now with the reasoned expectationof receiving more purchasing power – after taxes have been paid on nominalgains – in the future. More succinctly, investing is forgoing consumption now in order to have the ability to consume more at a later date.



从我们的定义中可以得出一个重要的推论:投资的风险并非被beta衡量(华尔街以此衡量波动性以及风险),而是由概率衡量(合理的概率)即投资导致其主人在持有期间损失的购买力的概率。资产价格经常大幅波动,而只要他们在其持有期间内可以合理确信提供增加的购买力,那么这些资产就不是风险高的。而正如我们将看到的,一个波动性小的资产也能充满风险。”



From our definition there flows an important corollary: Theriskiness of an investment is not measured by beta (a Wall Street termencompassing volatility and often used in measuring risk) but rather by the probability– the reasoned probability – of that investment causing its owner a loss ofpurchasing-power over his contemplated holding period. Assets can fluctuategreatly in price and not be risky as long as they are reasonablycertain to deliver increased purchasing power over theirholding period. And as we will see, a non-fluctuating asset can be laden with risk.(shareholdersletters-2011)



这是巴菲特与主流的投资界和华尔街包括基金界的一个不同的观点。巴菲特原来也讲过,在2012年致股东信作了新的阐述,所以说波动性并不是衡量风险的一个完美的指标,而且是严重错误的一个指标,波动小的资产也可能是高风险,波动大的资产也可能是低风险,关键看你在持有时间能不能带来购买力的提升,而且这个概率很大,那么是低风险,这是巴菲特对投资的一个新的定义,我认为是对投资界的一个比较新的重大贡献。



This is one of the opinions that Warren Buffett differs fromthe mainstream opinions in the investing industry including Wall Street. Warren Buffett expressed the opinion before, and this time he clearlyelaborated in his shareholders letters-2011. So volatility is not a perfectmeasure of risk, but a serious mistake as anindex. Assets with low volatility could be of high risk and assets with highvolatility could be of low risk. The key to determine the level of risks liesin whether the investment could receive more purchasing power in the holdingperiod. If the chances are good, then it’s low risk. This is a definition ofinvestment by Warren Buffett and a big contribution that he created for us.



(二)三类投资的划分



(2) Categories of investment



投资有许多种且变化多端。然而,投资概率主要有三个类型,理解每个类型的特征是非常重要的。



Investment possibilities are both many and varied. There are three majorcategories, however, and it’s important to understand the characteristics ofeach. So let’s survey the field.



1、以货币计价的投资。包括货币市场基金、债券、抵押贷款、银行存款和其他工具,这些都是基于货币的投资,而且关键是都认为是安全的投资,但事实上这是表面的安全,本金表面上是安全的,但实际上是最危险的资产之一。因为这些以货币计价的投资长期看它不能抵御通货膨胀,实际上是最危险的投资产之一,但表面上它是安全的,这是一类的投资。它们的β是零或者趋于零,波动性趋于零,但风险是巨大的。



1) Investments that are denominated in a given currencyinclude money-market funds, bonds, mortgages, bank deposits, and other instruments.Most of these currency-based investments are thought of as “safe.” In truththey are among the most dangerous of assets. Their beta may be zero, but theirrisk is huge.

巴菲特还举了一个例子,就是说哪怕在美国非常重视稳定货币,稳定货币政策的愿望非常强烈,但是他1965年接管伯克希尔之后47年以来美元仍然贬值了86%,那个时候1美元的价值不低于现在的7美元,也就是说贬值了86%,所以这个风险是很大的。你只有债券资产收益率年化达到了4.3%才能持平,如果考虑税收的话达到5.7%才行,所以这是一类的投资以货币计价,所以巴菲特说他很不喜欢这种基于货币投资的,但是任何事情都有两面性。尽管如此,伯克希尔仍然大量持有这类投资的,而且主要是短期的国库券,短期品种。因为原因很简单,出于流动性的需求,他把它作为一个占据核心位置,永远不可忽视。2012年的时候他当时对于流动性的要求是200亿美金,但最低是100亿,所以巴菲特是双保险,是double,考虑了安全边际,最低要求是100亿美金,但是他一般保持200亿美金的现金等价物,基于货币的投资这类投资大概当时是这么要求的,这是一类投资。



Warren Buffettt gave us one example:’Even in the U.S., where the wish for astable currency is strong, the dollar has fallen a staggering 86% in valuesince 1965, when I took over management of Berkshire. Consequently, a tax-freeinstitution would have needed 4.3% interest annually from bond investments overthat period to simply maintain its purchasing power. If we considered thepersonal income taxes at a rate averaging of 25%, investors have needed 5.7%interest annually to maintain its purchasing power. So this currency basedinvestments are what Warren Buffett dislikes. However, a coin has two sides,Berkshire still holds a significant amount of them, primarily of the short-term variety. As he says in the letter of 2011: ”working levelfor liquidity is $20 billion; $10 billion is our absolute minimum.” So WarrenBuffett made a double insurance in that he kept a margin of safety: he kept $20billions of currency based investments when his minimum requirement was $10billion.



2、非生产性资产的投资。第二类投资包括的资产是指那些实际不产生任何收益,但买家在认为其他人未来会为此支付更高的价格的期望下所购买的资产,这些买家也清楚这些资产永远不具有生产性。这种资产,比较通俗讲这是公的资产,但巴菲特说非生产性的资产,不能产生任何收益,就是说买家认为其他人会为未来支付更高的价格,它不是生息的资产,你只能下一个买家出更高的价格才能产生收益。比如说17世纪的郁金香,还有典型的黄金等贵金属,这是公的资产,非生产性资产。这类资产就是比较容易形成泡沫,这是第二类。



2) The second major category of assets involves assets that will neverproduce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer’s hope that someone else – who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive – will paymore for them in the future. Tulips, of all things, briefly became a favoriteof such buyers in the 17th century. This category of assets are commonly knowin China as ‘male assets’(not able to produce dividends, or sterile assets). InWarren Buffett’s view, this category of investments make profits only whenothers bid a higher price. Tulips and gold are typical investments that belongto this category. Besides not capable of producing dividends, this second majorcategory of investments are easily to cause bubbles.



3、生产性资产的投资。这是巴菲特最青睐的、最钟爱的一种投资类别,就是投资有生产力的资产,这类资产就是我们国内比较通俗讲是母的,能够有生产力,能够生孩子,能够下蛋的母鸡。主要是三个类型,比如企业,比如房地产,比如农场,这三类资产都是有生产力的资产,或者叫生息资产,这种资产能够在通胀保持购买力价格,同时需要最少的新增资本。它实际上两个条件,第一个它能够抵御通胀,能够转嫁通胀。第二个它不需要太多的新增的资本投入,所以这类资产有两大特点,比如说农场、房地产或者可口可乐这类的企业,还有巴菲特控股的喜诗糖果都属于这类。巴菲特还持有一类资产是受管制的公用事业公司就不能通过上述的考验,因为它们在通胀的环境下需要大量的资本支出,所以巴菲特区分成三类资产。我们大众最容易产生错误认识的地方,因为主流的观点都认为是货币市场基金、银行存款包括债券这些是最安全的资产。第二个是黄金,这类资产也认为是可以保值增值的,比较安全,认为股票一类的包括房地产是最不安全的资产,这些主流观点实际上是错的。从长期来看,第三类资产才是长线赢家,更为重要的是它最为安全,巴菲特非常明确的观点,最安全的资产。



3) Our third category, Warren Buffett’s preference, isinvestment in productive assets, whether businesses, farms, or real estate.This category of assets is commonly known for Chinese as ‘female assets’(fertileassets, which are capable of giving birth to children or eggs). They producedividends, Ideally, these assets should have the ability in inflationary timesto deliver output that will retain its purchasing-power value while requiring aminimum of new capital investment. Certain other companies, regulatedutilities, for example, fail it because inflation places heavy capitalrequirements on them. To sum up, Warren Buffett classified assets as threemajor categories. The places where most people make mistakes about theclassification of assets are that we tend to recognize assets such as moneymarket funds, deposits in bank and bonds as safe investments, that gold is safeand it will retain its purchasing-power, and that investment in productiveassets such as stocks and real estate are the most risky assets. In fact theseopinions are false. In the long term, the third category of assets wins and it’sthe safest investment according to Warren Buffett.



(三)芒格列出的其中一条特质是“巴菲特决定将自己的(投资)活动限定在少数几个种类,并50年如一日的高度专注这几个种类,这一点难能可贵。”



(3) Charlie Munger listed one quality of Warren Buffett, hisaction to limit his investments to a few category of investments and focus onthem for more than 50 years, which is a valuable trait of Warren.



(四)在50周年致股东信中,巴菲特本人也谈到了现金的重要性。承接了刚才说基于货币计价的资产是一个高风险的垃圾资产。但是另外一个方面,巴菲特也谈到现金的重要性,他说:“在一家健康的企业里,现金有时被认为应当最小化,被视为可能拖累股本回报等数据的非生产性资产。然而,现金之于企业,就好比氧气之于个人:平时被人忘在脑后,一旦少了它,满脑子想的都是它。”



(4) In thefiftieth letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett discussed the importance ofcash and it was an extension to the topic of three category of assets. AlthoughWarren Buffett regarded currency based assets as high risky assets, he alsoemphasize the importance of cash:’At a healthy business, cash is sometimesthought of as something to be minimized – as an unproductive asset that acts asa drag on such markers as return on equity. cash, though, is to a business as oxygenis to an individual: never thought about when it is present, the only thing inmind when it is absent.’



现金的重要性实际上讲到了巴菲特和伯克希尔一个重要的资产配置的策略。我2017年俱乐部年会也讲了一下资产配置之道、资产配置方法,其实第一个重要的,第一步实际上是把现金安排好,就是巴菲特强调现金重要性的地方。把短期的现金安排好之后呢,剩下的资金就可以根据机会成本或者根据你能够发现的机会放手去做投资,这是一个非常重要的资产配置的方法。所以巴菲特在50周年专门讲了它,实际上这里体现了巴菲特重要的配置方法之一,这也是伯克希尔50多年以来一直评为3A级财务状况的一个重要秘诀之一。巴菲特说他的资产配置,对三类资产的配置,首先他把现金做了很好的安排,第二个他构建了一个直布罗陀海峡般的财务状况。第三个呢,解决后顾之忧之后,他能够放手去做投资抓住机会。



The importance of cash is related to a strategy of WarrenBuffett and Berkshire Hathaway. In the annual meeting of 2017 at our investingclub, I discussed about the strategy of allocating assets. The first step is toensure enough money, and this step is exactly what Warren Buffett stressedabout the importance of cash. After the first step, the remaining capitalshould be invested at one’s best based on the opportunity cost of capital andthe investing chances that are available. This asset allocating strategy is asignificant strategy, so Warren Buffett discussed this strategy in the fiftiethletters of Berkshire Hathaway to shareholders. This strategy of allocatingcapital is a method of Berkshire Hathaway and a secret why Berkshire Hathawayremained an AAA rating for more than 50 years. Warren Buffett talked about hisallocating of three categories of assets: First step is to arrange sufficientcash; Then build a company with a financial situation like the straits ofGibraltar; After resolving worries in the backyard,he can make the best use of his remaining capital to seize investingopportunities.



(五)巴菲特2015年致股东信:我们去年全年卖光了Tesco的股票。我们税后的损失是4.44亿美元,约为伯克希尔净值的0.2%。过去50年,我们只有一次投资损失超过我们净值的2%;此外还有两次投资损失超过伯克希尔净值的1%。这三笔投资都发生在1974-1975年,当时我们将那些股票贱卖,以买入其他更便宜的股票。巴菲特这个反思提示我们一个重要的风险控制原则:单只股票的最大永久性损失尽量不要超过净值的2%。



(5) In his letter to Berkshireshareholders(2014): ‘We sold Tesco shares throughout the year and are now outof the position. Our after-tax loss from this investment was $444 million,about 1/5 of 1% of Berkshire’s net worth. In the past 50 years, we have onlyonce realized an investment loss that at the time of sale cost us 2% ofour net worth. Twice, we experienced 1% losses. All three of these lossesoccurred in the 1974-1975 period, when we sold stocks that were very cheap inorder to buy others we believed to be even cheaper.’ WarrenBuffett’s reflection remanded us an important principle of risk control: Themaximum loss to any single investment shouldn’t exceed 2% of our net capital.



(六)投资理论没有新的突破,但商业洞察力和识人用人的能力持续提高。



(6) Although he made no breakthrough to his investmentphilosophy, Warren Buffett’s insights into business along with his ability torecognize and appoint talents has been making progress.



(七)敢于突破自己最喜爱的观点:打破了自己不投科技股,不投带轮子的公司,不投航空公司的观点。特别是对苹果的投资。



(7) Dareto break his favorite opinions: Warren Buffett break his personal investingrule of not investing in technology stocks, companies whosebusinesses are of tyres andairline companies. His investment in Apple is a vivid proof.



巴菲特曾说他不投苹果的原因是他不知道未来十年苹果会怎样。芒格甚至说没有比苹果更不符合他们的选股标准了。但是后来,巴菲特两个接班人买了苹果以后有所触动,巴菲特在不断学习、进化、思考,而且认为苹果是一家消费类的公司,也不完全是只有科技的一面,所以,巴菲特也在进化、也在拓展他的能力圈,也在敢于突破自己的观点。后来有人问芒格怎么看巴菲特也投资苹果,芒格说,他要么疯了,要么在学习。



Warren Buffett shared his reasons why he would never investin Apple is that he didn’t know how Apple was going in 10 years. Charlie Munger even said that there were no other companies like Apple that didn’tsuit their criterion to invest stocks. However, after the two successors ofWarren Buffett invested in Apple, Warren Buffett kept learning, evolving andthinking, and realized that Apple was not entirely a technology company. Applewas in part a ‘2C’ company.So his investment proved his personal evolution, his endeavors to expand hiscircle of competence and his willingness to update his ideas. One time afterWarren Buffett invested in Apple, someone asked Charlie Munger how did he thinkabout the case that Warren Buffett invested in Apple, Charlie Munger replied hewas crazy, otherwise he was learning.



(八)阿理一家之言:伯克希尔的商业模式是典型的以投资能力为核心、股东导向的生态模式。这是投资界和企业界第一次从生态的角度对伯克希尔的商业模式进行研究。



(8) My personal views on Berkshire Hathaway’s business model:Berkshire Hathaway hasan ecosystemmodel that centers on investing capacity and that has a shareholderorientation. This is the first time that investment-industry and businesscommunity study Berkshire Hathaway’s business model from a perspective of ecosystem.



伯克希尔的商业模式是按照原来经典的管理学的话,巴菲特的商业模式应该是失败的模式,你看它是比较松散的多元化模式,也没有用经典的管理学的理论来进行管理,按理说它应该是一个失败的一个商业模式,但是实际上我个人的观点伯克希尔商业模式是典型的以投资能力为核心、以股东为导向的一种生态模式,这是我的一家之言,是投资界、企业界第一次从生态的角度对伯克希尔商业模式进行研究。通过这种模式淋漓尽致地发挥了巴菲特的投资能力,还有他无为而治的管理之道,实际上它是一种把他的投资哲学和经营哲学结合的非常紧密的一种模式。这种模式发挥了巴菲特的投资能力,然后提供了源源不断的现金流给巴菲特做更高效的配置,然后能够使伯克希尔的每股内在价值持续五十年的持续增长,所以伯克希尔的模式就变成了一种生态模式,而且是以投资为核心的。为什么会这样呢?巴菲特自己有论述,巴菲特说伯克希尔几乎肯定会蓬勃发展,那些查理和我的继任经理们将根据以下我们简单的蓝图增加伯克希尔每股股票的内在价值:



According to classical management science, the business modelof Berkshire should be a failure. It has a loose structure with a lot ofdiversification, and it has been operated without classical management science,but it turned out to be successful model that centered on investing capacityand oriented toward shareholders’ benefit. This special mode has made the fulluse of Warren Buffett’s ability to allocate capital, and his tao oflaissez-faire in management. In fact it was a mode that turned out to be acombination of his investing and management philosophy. This unique mode hasenabled Warren Buffett to gain ceaseless cash flow and exert his excellentability in allocating capital, and by focusing on allocating capital moreefficiently, Warren Buffett has kept increasing Berkshire’sintrinsic value for more than 50 years. From my perspective, the business modeof Berkshire turned out to be an ecosystemthat centered on investing. Why? Warren Buffett said in 2015’ letters toshareholders: Berkshire (and, to be sure, a great many other businesses) will almost certainly prosper. The managers who succeed Charlie and me will build Berkshire’sper-share intrinsic value by following our simple blueprint of:



1、不断改善我们众多附属公司的基本盈利能力;

2、通过补强并购进一步增加他们的收益;

3、从增长的投资中获益;

4、在相对于内在价值而言具有有意义的折扣时回购伯克希尔股票;

5、偶尔进行大型收购。管理部门也会通过少量发行伯克希尔的股份(如果有的话),尽量使你的收益最大化。



(1) constantlyimproving the basic earning power of our many subsidiaries;

(2) furtherincreasing their earnings through bolt-on acquisitions;

(3) benefiting from the growth of our investees;

(4) repurchasing Berkshire shares when they are available at a meaningful discountfrom intrinsic value; and

(5) making anoccasional large acquisition. Management will also try to maximize results foryou by rarely, if ever, issuing Berkshire shares.



(九)关于永久持有股票的澄清。

巴菲特在2016年致股东信关于永久持有股票做了一个澄清和说明,巴菲特这样说的:



(9) The clarification of owning certain stocks forever

In 2016 letters to shareholders, WarrenBuffett made a clarification of owning certain stocks forever, he said:



“有时,来自股东或媒体的言论暗示,伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司将永远持有一些股票资产。事实上,我们持有一些股票,只要我还保持健康就不准备卖掉这些股票。但是,我们并没有做出任何形式的承诺,承诺伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司将永远持有这些可以在市场中自由交易的证券资产。如果有人没有弄明白这个问题,可能是因为他没有认真读第11条经济学原理。从1983年以来,伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司年报中第110至第111页一直保留了这条原理。这条经济学原理涉及如何控制公司业务发展,而不是控制可以自由交易的证券资产。今年,我又给第11条经济学原理加了一条总结性陈述,以确保公司的股东明白,伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司认为任何在市场中自由交易的证券资产都有可能被出售,尽管目前来看公司不太可能出售这个证券资产。”



Sometimes the comments of shareholders or media imply that wewill own certain stocks “forever.” It is true that we own some stocks that Ihave no intention of selling for as far as the eye can see (and we’re talking 20/20vision). But we have made no commitment that Berkshire will hold any of itsmarketable securities forever. Confusion about this point may have resultedfrom a too-casual reading of Economic Principle 11 on pages 110 - 111, whichhas been included in our annual reports since 1983. That principle coverscontrolled businesses, not marketable securities. This year I’ve added a finalsentence to #11 to ensure that our owners understand that we regard anymarketable security as available for sale, however unlikely such a sale nowseems.



也就是说巴菲特承诺,他控股、收购的公司永不出售、永久持有,除非它的亏损不可逆转或者说它的工会过于强大这两种情况,不然的话,他一直会持有这些整体收购的公司。但是在二级市场上可以自由交易的证券资产,巴菲特没有承诺永不出售的,这个实际上是比较客观的,因为这些公司实际上巴菲特等同合伙的公司,但是有条件的永久持有,但并不是说,他并没有无条件承诺永不出售,这是巴菲特专门做了一次解读、解释。



In other words, Warren Buffett has made commitment that hewill never sell his controlled businesses and notmarketable securities unless their losses are irreversible or labor unions are toopowerful. But for the marketable securities, he has made no such commitment.This is quite objective because these marketable securities equal Buffett’spartner businesses, and he will hold it forever under certain conditions. Itdoesn’t mean he promise hold forever with no condition. This is a case thatWarren Buffett made a specific clarification.



这给我们一个什么启示呢?就是说巴菲特所谓的永久持有实际上是有条件的,也是比较理性,是最大利益化,并不是无条件的永久持有。我自己实际上也有体会,26年的投资经历,我历史上曾经持有一些公司刚开始也希望永久持有、或者是非常长期的持有,后来发现情况变了,也可能会有所调整,可能也会放弃,或者换更优秀的、更低估的公司,对核心、特别优秀的企业有条件的永久持有,并不是无条件、盲目的、非理性,这是给我们的启示。



What inspirations do this case give us? It tells us that theso called ‘hold forever’ by Warren Buffett should be undercertain conditions, and it is a rational decision to maximum profits. I fullyunderstand with my 26 years of investing experience. I held many marketablecompanies that I hoped to own forever or for a long period of time. But withtime goes by, the situation changed, or my investing strategy adjusted, Idecided to gave up holding or exchange the stocks for some betteropportunities(companies with better performance or larger margins of safety).Warren Buffett tells us a lesson with this case: we should understand that ourdecision to own certain core and excellent companies forever should never beblind, under on condition and irrational.

巴菲特在2016年致股东信专门做了一个解释,这是第九条。去年我在千聊网也有解读,我简单说一下观点,跟今天有点相关,当时的题目是《天下归心、终极复利—读巴菲特2016年致股东信感悟》。



Last year I held a meeting titled All hearts of talentsturned to Berkshire, the ultimate compounding on Qianliao platform tointerpret 2016 Warren Buffett’s letters to shareholders. The content of themeeting is related to our topic today, which I would like to share my majorviewpoints at the meeting.



(一)一张图胜过千言万语(图表和说明部分)



1) A diagram which is superiorto hundreds of thousands of words



1、像荷马史诗一样,这是巴菲特的宏伟的英雄史诗。

马克思称《伊利亚特》是“一切时代最宏伟的英雄史诗。”,打开伯克希尔致股东信,52年的历史业绩,也颇有读《荷马史诗》之感。



1.This is Warren Buffett’s epic, an epic like Homer's Epic.

Mark said Iliad was ‘the mostmarvelous epic of heroes of all eras.’ When I read the diagram of 52 years ofperformance of Berkshire in the annual report, I had a same feeling as I read Homer'sEpic.



2、巴菲特打造了一台终极复利机器,他的税后账面价值持续增长50年19%,市值是23.4%,而标准普尔只有是12%和9.7%,体现了终极复利机器复利的威力,伯克希尔在52年增长了18513倍。



2.Warren Buffett created an ultimatecompounding machine that kept book value of Berkshire being increased for more than 50 years at an annualized return of19%, market value increased at an annual rate of 23.4%. In the same timeperiod, Standard & Poor’s counterpart increasing rate were 12% and 9.7%. The statisticsshowed the power of Warren Buffett’s ultimate compounding machine: in 52years(1965-2016), Berkshire grew 18513 times.



3、刚才我也说了一下,伯克希尔是一部生态复利机器,不仅是终极的,还是生态的,围绕投资这个核心结合巴菲特的风格和个性,通过投资、企业购并形成一个资产高效配置生态型复利机器。



3. As I mentioned before, Berkshire has an ecological compoundingmachine which is not only an ultimate but also an ecological one. It suitsWarren Buffett’s management style and character and centers on investing. Byinvesting and acquiring companies, it forms an ecological compounding machineallocating capital efficiently.



4、精湛的表现背后必有精湛的哲学。一是“能力圈+护城河+安全边际”为核心的高品质企业投资哲学;二是“高品质企业收购+无为而治+资产高效配置”的企业自然生态经营哲学。



4. Excellent performance must bear with itexcellent philosophy. The investing philosophy of Warren Buffett is ‘circle ofcompetence+moat theory+margin of safety’. The ecological management philosophyof Warren Buffett is ‘acquiring high quality companies+ laissez-faire managementstyle+allocating assets with high efficiency’.



5、相互信任、天下归心。巴菲特打造了一个生态王国,达到了人类文明的最高境界:毫无保留的相互信任。实际上达到了传说中的“天下归心”,这是曹操的《短歌行》里面讲的“山不厌高,海不厌深。周公吐哺,天下归心。”巴菲特实际上打造了这样一个相互信任的生态王国。



5. Bymutual trust, All hearts of talents turned to Berkshire. Warren Buffett createdan ecological kingdom, it is the highest state of human civilization: bytrusting each other, Berkshire realized a legendary state ‘all hearts oftalents turned to Berkshire’. This is a state depicted by Caocao’s in hispopular Short-Song Ballad:

The water cannever be too deep,

And themountain too high.

When anopen-minded king calls for talent,

It is him thewould must stand by.

Warren Buffett in fact built an ecological kingdom wherepeople trust each other.



(二)巴菲特公开的秘密。

1、复利的关键:保留盈余再投资,实现复利累进。

2、天下雨金,当用桶接。就是出现好的机会要集中投资。

3、伯克希尔的模式从投资行为获利向靠自己控股的企业价值成长获利的公司,

4、确立双管齐下的商业模式。



2. WarrenBuffett’s open secret

1) Thekey to compounding: retaining and investing earnings, increasing compoundingrate

2) When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.

3) The business mode of Berkshire turned from making profits bypurely investing to realizing profits by the increased value created from thecompanies that Buffett owned.

4) Establishing a business model of two-prolonged approach



(1)而这笔交易也正式确定了我们现在的模式——第一,持续发展我们的保险业务;第二,积极收购那些规模巨大,具有多元化意义的非保险企业;第三,主要依靠我们自身产生出的现金来进行交易。(现在,我宁可再接受一次结肠镜检查,也不愿意发行伯克希尔的新股了。)



(1) The MidAmerican cash purchase – Iwas learning –firmly launched us on our present course of (1) continuing to build our insuranceoperation; (2) energetically acquiring large and diversified non-insurancebusinesses and (3) largely making our deals from internally-generated cash.(Today, I would rather prep for a colonoscopy than issue Berkshire shares.)



(2)我们的债券和股票的投资组合尽管已经不再受到重视,但是1998年至今也还在持续增长,为我们带来大量的资本利得、利息和股息。这些投资组合盈利在我们收购企业时提供了主要的助力。尽管有些非常规,但是伯克希尔这种双管齐下的资本配置确实让我们获得了实实在在的优势。



Our portfolio of bonds and stocks, de-emphasized though itis, has continued in the post-1998 period to grow and to deliver us heftycapital gains, interest, and dividends. Those portfolio earnings have providedus major help in financing the purchase of businesses. Though unconventional,Berkshire’s two-pronged approach to capital allocation gives us a real edge.



5、巴菲特奇迹背后的美国奇迹



The American miracle behind Warren Buffett’s miracle



对未来谨慎乐观



Remain cautious optimism toward future



从大约240年前建国时开始创造90万亿美元的财富——美国人民将人类的创造力、市场系统、富有聪明才智和雄心壮志的移民潮,以及法律原则等融为一体,创造出了我们的先辈们作梦都无法想像的丰饶。



From a standing start 240 years ago – a span of time lessthan triple my days on earth – Americans have combined human ingenuity, amarket system, a tide of talented and ambitious immigrants, and the rule of lawto deliver abundance beyond any dreams of our forefathers. Starting fromscratch, America has amassed wealth totaling $90 trillion.



美国的企业—以及相应的股票——在未来的岁月当中必然还要变得更有价值。创新、生产力提高、进取精神和充足的资本都已经决定了这一切。



American business – and consequently a basket of stocks – isvirtually certain to be worth far more in the years ahead. Innovation,productivity gains, entrepreneurial spirit and an abundance of capital will seeto that.

当然,许多企业会在未来掉队。市场活力之下,大浪淘沙原本也是必然的结果。还有,未来我们也还会不时遭遇市场的大规模下滑,甚至恐慌出现,让所有股票都受到冲击。没有人能够准确预言这些变故的具体发生时间——我做不到,查理做不到,经济学家们和媒体也做不到。纽约联储的麦康奈尔(MegMcConnell)对于恐慌实质的描述颇为到位:“我们花了大量的时间去寻找系统性风险;可事实上,往往都是它先找上我们的可能性更大。”



Many companies, of course, will fall behind, and some willfail. Winnowing of that sort is a product of market dynamism. Moreover, theyears ahead will occasionally deliver major market declines – even panics – thatwill affect virtually all stocks. No one can tell you when these traumas willoccur – not me, not Charlie, not economists, not the media. Meg McConnell ofthe New York Fed aptly described the reality of panics: “We spend a lot of timelooking for systemic risk; in truth, however, it tends to find us.”



在这样的恐怖时期,有两件事你必须时刻记得:首先,普遍的恐惧情绪其实是投资者的朋友,因为这可以让你获得廉价买进的机会。其次,个人的恐惧是你的敌人,而且它其实是毫无根据的。投资者只要避开过高的和不必要的成本,长期坚持投资于一系列谨慎融资的美国大型企业,最终的表现几乎是不会有错的。



During such scary periods, you should never forget two things: First,widespread fear is your friend as an investor, because it serves up bargainpurchases. Second, personal fear is your enemy. It will also be unwarranted. Investors who avoid high and unnecessary costs and simply sitfor an extended period with a collection of large, conservatively-financed American businesses will almost certainly do well.

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